Swedish construction consultancy Pantektor AB has adopted Palisade's flagship risk analysis software, @RISK to mitigate risk of fire

The fire risk of a building is calculated from probability (the likelihood of fire occurring) and consequence (the impact of fire on a building or facility). Pantektor determines this using @RISK risk analysis software from Palisade. @RISK adds-in directly to Microsoft Excel, and uses Monte Carlo simulation to show all potential scenarios, as well as the likelihood that each will occur, thereby providing the decision-maker with the most complete picture possible.

Data is supplemented with judgement based on experience and expertise. The resulting in-depth analysis from @RISK enables Pantektor to define the best and most cost-effective fire protection strategy for every structure or facility that it is involved in. This process is assisted by @RISK's sensitivity analysis capacity, which identifies the variables that have the greatest impact if they are changed.

Pierre Palmberg, fire protection engineer and senior consultant at Pantektor explains: "It is human nature to want to reduce risk to zero, but life is built around uncertainty and risk analysis tools must be flexible enough to allow for this. One of @RISK's key strengths is that it measures probabilities in terms of variables rather than fixed numbers - so the probability of X event occurring is expressed as a distribution function. If uncertainty is not factored in from the start of a project, the eventual result can be hugely inaccurate - and therefore potentially fatal. For example the danger in measuring the probability of fire occurrence as once in 1000 years, when the actual probability is once in 100-200 years, is clear."

As well as ensuring that the fire risk of new buildings meets safety standards, Pantektor is also involved in assessing existing structures and facilities. Generally, an improved knowledge of hazardous situations and substances has resulted in increasingly stringent national regulations that often need new mitigation strategies to make existing facilities safe. In addition, there are a growing number of environmental restrictions that must be accounted for. This is reinforced by the acknowledgement by many companies that risk management gives them competitive advantage.

Palmberg concludes: "@RISK's power and flexibility, whilst not completely removing the risk of fire, help us with the critical task of managing that risk in a cost-effective way."