The internet could suffer a dramatic slowdown by 2010, according to analyst firm Nemertes Research Group. Poor internet access infrastructure, specifically in North America, is being mooted as the cause of the anticipated drop in access times and expected bandwidth constraints. 

Chris Dean, managing director of IT consultancy DMW, says: “Whilst the core of the internet is likely to have capacity for years to come there is a potential concern with internet access infrastructure in some parts of the world.  Part of the impending problem can be placed at the door of technologies, such as Skype and P2P, which have flourished in recent years. To put this into context, as much as 60% of carriers’ traffic is of this type (depending on geography and time of day).

“Despite the fact that the US has one of the largest proportions of internet users per capita, it is guilty of under investing in access networks compared to many parts of the world including the UK.  As a result some parts of the US may suffer prolonged periods of poor service unless investment is not made.  However, it is not just location that will determine the speed of connection it will also come down to the clout of the content provider.  The likes of Google, Amazon and iTunes typically have their own local internet presence, giving them access to an alternative infrastructure to the core internet highway.  Meaning, if infrastructure capacity fails to support the masses, we are likely to see the separation of the wheat from chaff on the internet. 

“To delay or reduce the level of investment, service providers must consider a number of possible approaches to address the problem. For example, traffic prioritisation (which happens now in many networks), changing the charging model (possibly to include charging by time of day or by volume of data transmitted).  Alternatively, there has also been talk of a two-tier internet with priority given to those who pay more.

“Some countries are upgrading their networks and seeking to minimise the effect of increased traffic simultaneously.  Korea, for example, reportedly set aside £500m in 2003 for network upgrades to provide 100Mbps to home users by 2010, complemented with local cache/proxy servers to help tackle projected problems.”